CIA Warns of Russia, China, Iran

CIA Warns of Russia, China, Iran

Dave Eberhart, NewsMax.com
Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2003

Even the unclassified and sanitized version of the latest report from the director of Central Intelligence to Congress paints a grim picture of a cash-strapped Russia selling dual-use technology to an increasingly dangerous Iran, China's threat, and a growing danger of terrorists using chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear materials.

The report, required under the Intelligence Authorization Act, spells out, among other things, the particulars of the acquisition by foreign entities of "dual use" materials and technologies (peaceful but also handy for the building of weapons of mass destruction) during the period from July 1 through Dec. 31, 2001.

China's Danger

China was not far behind Russia in garnering concerns about its non-proliferation policies – as they operate practically.

In October 1997, China gave the United States assurances regarding its nuclear cooperation with Iran. China agreed to end cooperation with Iran on supplying a uranium conversion facility (UCF) and to undertake no new cooperation with Iran after completion of two existing projects.

However, despite this window dressing, the report noted, "We are concerned that some interactions between Chinese and Iranian entities may run counter to Beijing’s bilateral commitments to the United States."

The report also pointed to the fact that Chinese firms are supplying dual-use CW-related production equipment and technology to the ubiquitous Iran.

Iran Is Busy

In addition to Russia and China, Iran earned the most notable low marks. "Iran is vigorously pursuing programs to produce indigenous WMD - nuclear, chemical, and biological - and their delivery systems as well as advanced conventional weapons (ACW). During the reporting period, Iran focused particularly on entities in Russia, China, North Korea, and Europe."

The report added the telling conclusion of the intelligence community that "despite Iran’s status in the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the United States is convinced Tehran is pursuing a nuclear weapons program."

To bolster its efforts to establish domestic nuclear fuel-cycle capabilities, the report noted, Iran has sought assorted foreign fissile materials and technology. "Such capabilities also can support fissile material production for Tehran’s overall nuclear weapons program."

Iran is a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention. Nevertheless, the report noted, during the reporting period it continued to seek chemicals, production technology, training, and expertise from entities in Russia and China that could further efforts at achieving an indigenous capability to produce nerve agents.

Iran Outscores Iraq

On the face of the abbreviated report, Iran seemed to far outscore declared U.S. enemy No. 1 Iraq in all categories. Although pointing to a dearth of intelligence owing to the cutoff of inspections in 1998, the report contained nothing resembling the much-coveted grail of the "smoking gun." All the material on Iraq (in at least the sanitized report) was old hat.

By example: "Saddam's repeated publicized exhortations to his 'Nuclear Mujahidin' to 'defeat the enemy' added to our concerns that since the Gulf war Iraq has continued Research and Development work associated with its nuclear program. A sufficient source of fissile material remains Iraq’s most significant obstacle to being able to produce a nuclear weapon. The intelligence community is concerned that Baghdad is attempting to acquire materials that could aid in reconstituting its nuclear weapons program."

Some of the strongest language about Iraq in the report harkens back to old news:

"UNSCOM reported to the Security Council in December 1998 that Iraq also continued to withhold information related to its CW program. For example, Baghdad seized from UNSCOM inspectors an Iraqi Air Force document discovered by UNSCOM that indicated that Iraq had not consumed as many CW munitions during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s as had been declared by Baghdad. This discrepancy indicates that Iraq may have hidden an additional 6,000 CW munitions."

The report concluded, "During this reporting period, Baghdad continued to pursue a BW program. Iraq in 1995 admitted to having an offensive BW program, but UNSCOM was unable to verify the full scope and nature of Iraq’s efforts. In light of Iraq’s growing industrial self-sufficiency and the likely availability of mobile or covert facilities, we are concerned that Iraq may again be producing BW agents."

Details About Russia

Some of the strongest language in the report was reserved for Russia, the only "entity" earning a specific recommendation:

# President Vladimir Putin in May 2000 amended the presidential decree on nuclear exports to allow Russia to export nuclear materials, technology, and equipment to countries that do not have full-scope IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) safeguards.

# Russian entities during the reporting period continued to supply a variety of ballistic missile-related goods and technical know-how to countries such as Iran, India, and China.

# During 2001, Russian entities remained a significant source of dual-use biotechnology, chemicals, production technology, and equipment for Iran.

# The recommendation: To reduce the outward flow of WMD and missile-related materials, technology, and expertise, top officials must make a sustained effort to convince exporting entities - as well as the bureaucracy whose job it is to oversee them - that nonproliferation is a top priority and that those who violate the law will be prosecuted.

North Korea's Nuclear Weapons

As to the third member of the president's "Axis of Evil," North Korea, there were no surprises:

"North Korea probably has produced enough plutonium for at least one, and possibly two, nuclear weapons. Spent fuel rods canned in accordance with the 1994 Agreed Framework contain enough plutonium for several more weapons."

Syria did not get away unscathed in the review. The report noted that Damascus already held a stockpile of the nerve agent sarin but was trying to develop more toxic and persistent nerve agents.

Iran, junior member of the Axis of Evil, remained a focal point of the intelligence report. The report ominously noted, for instance, that Iran – already a military powerhouse – would soon become Russia’s third-largest arms customer, after China and India.