Saturday, October 4, 2008

Rankings as of 10/3

Again, this is all of college football's teams (margin of victory * opp win %)
Which I believe is an excellent way to rank them because it takes out the subjectivity of the current el stupido system which is the equivilant to a beauty contest or american politics (that is not a shot at Palin, she is actually the one bright spot in this campaign). If anything, its a shot at the blind fanatical Obama following. People who adore him and know absolutely nothing about his background. Truly scary this popularity contest of ours!
Anyway, below that is the same (mar. of vic * opp win pct.)/ Avg per game. This is a bit more accurate since some teams have played fewer games.

#1- Texas 56.95
#2- Oklahoma 38.25
#3- Alabama 34.92
#4- Nebraska 34.00
#5- BYU 29.75
#6- Utah 29.07
T - Missouri 29.07
#8- Georgia 28.67
#9- Penn State 25.47
#10- Wisconsin 24.45
#11- Boise St. 22.17
#12- USC 20.40
#13- Ball St. 20.13
#14- TCU 19.40
#15- Michigan St. 18.83
#16- Minnesota 17.75
#17- Tulsa 16.80
#18- Vandy 16.70
#19- Kansas 16.57
#20- California 15.27
#21- Oklahoma St. 15.08
#22- Iowa 14.30
#23- Notre Dame 14.13
#24- Nevada 13.20
#25- Florida 13.17
#26- S Florida 10.75
#27- Oregon 10.40
#26- Cinncinati 10.0

Sum of(Margin of Victory * Opp win Pct)/ Games Played
In other words, what each team is scoring in terms of margin of victory, prorated by opponents win % each week.

#1- Texas 14.24
#2- Oklahoma 12.75
#3- Missouri 9.69
#4- Nebraska 8.5
#5- BYU 7.44
#6- Boise St. 7.39
#7- Georgia 7.17
#8- Alabama 6.98
#9- USC 6.8
#10- Penn St. 6.37
#11- Wisconsin 6.11
#12- Utah 5.81
#13- Tulsa 5.60
#14- Kansas 5.52
#15- Oklahoma St 5.03
T- Ball St. 5.03
#17- TCU 4.85
#18- Minnesota 4.44
#19- California 3.82
#20- Michigan St 3.77
#21- Iowa 3.58
#22- Notre Dame 3.53
#23- Florida 3.29
#24- Kentucky 3.28
#25- Wake Forest 2.83

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Best Wins - Worse Losses NCAA Football 2008

My spreadsheet calculates the most impressive wins and the most pathetic losses of the season.
So what are they?


Best Wins
Virginia Tech beat Nebraska 74.00
Alabama beat Georgia 68.67
Michigan beat Wisconsin 68.15
S.Florida beat Kansas 62.00
Or. St beat USC 61.00
Oklahoma beat TCU 59.4
Cal beat Mich St. 58.83
Ohio St. beat Minnesota 57.75
Maryland beat California 55.27
Pitt beat Iowa 54.25
Northwestern beat Iowa 54.25
Mississippi beat Florida 53.17
Missouri beat Nevada 53.2
Utah beat AFA 52.75
Boise St beat Oregon 52.5
Navy beat WF 51.33


Worst Losses
Idaho lost to USU- 68.0667
Toledo lost to FIU -66.25
E.Carolina lost to NC ST -65.4
Memphis lost to Marshall -61.5
Ohio lost to Wyoming -61.1667
E Mich lost to Toledo -60.75
Kent State lost to La Laf -59.667
Idaho lost to SDSU -58.667
UCF lost to UTEP -55.667
Buffalo lost to C Mich -53.61
Washington lost to Stanford -51.92
Or.St lost to Stanford -51.92
NMU lost to TAMU -51.60
Maryland lost to Mid Tenn St -50.33
ASU lost to UNLV -50.17

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Yet Another Poll

This poll isn't as accurate as my other formula, because it doesn't represent schedule strength quite as much.
If you just want to know who is blowing out teams prorated against opp win % the most,
here is the Top 28 for the following:
Avg (margin of Victory * opp win %)/games played against D1 schools (other games are disregarded, unless a loss).

#1- Texas 14.24
#2- Oklahoma 12.03
#3- Missouri 9.69
#4- BYU 8.58
#5- Nebraska 8.5
#6- Utah 7.57
#7- Kansas 7.33
#7- Penn St. 7.14
#8- Alabama 7.09
#9- Wisconsin 7.04
#10- USC 7.00
#11- Georgia 5.73
#12- Tulsa 5.60
#13- Boise 5.25
#14- Ball St 5.03
#15- Oklahoma St 5.03
#16- Florida St. 4.88
#17- TCU 4.85
#18- Minnesota 4.44
#19- Nevada 4.40 (even though 1-2, their two losses where against undefeated so neither counted against them in points, I'm sure some would be very shocked to see them at 19 in this poll.)
#20- Air Force 4.25
#21- Vandy 4.18
#22- California 3.82
#23- Michigan St 3.77
#24- Notre Dame 3.53
#25- Iowa 3.56
#26- Florida 3.29
#27- Kentucky 3.28
#28- Arizona St. 3.27

MWC Drops to Fourth Best

In a week where BYU had a bye and Utah didn't play a D1 (which doesn't count on my spreadsheet), the Mountain took a little bit of a hit.
We all know that the BCS system is a complete crock and a joke so I wanted to see what would happen if you took a team's (margin of victory * opp win %) so I created a spread sheet. This week, to standardize it and make it more responsive to the strength or weakness of opponents, I added some to the formula.
Now it goes something like this:
(Victory Margin * Opp %) + 40p/win + (Sum of Opp. Victory Margin * Sum of Opp’s Opps win %)/ Number of games played.

The effect of the addition is that teams get more rewarded for wins. It ranks the magnitude of each individual victory. It pays attention to what is happening to the opponents each team has played and calculates that into the equation. For example, UCLA almost beat Fresno State. Had that happened (38-36), BYU would have jumped up to #6 right in front of Utah. Had Washington Beat Stanford by a field goal, BYU would have jumped to #5 right in front of Georgia. As it stands however, BYU is starting to take a hit, because of the two PAC10 team's poor performance. Likewise, Utah was hurt a little because of UNLV's failure against Nevada. Had they won, the Utes might have been 3rd right now (in a fair system). Michigan beating Wisconsin really helped the Utes out though. Keep in mind, in this spreadsheet, one thing happens, and it changes everything else. It is very fluid, but with more information every week, I think it becomes more reflective of reality.
Oh, by the way, go to heck BCS, we don't need you.

Week of September 28, 2008

(Victory Margin * Opp %) + 40p/win + (Sum of Opp. Victory Margin * Sum of Opp’s Opps win %)/ Number of games played.
Number in () is simple (Victory Margin * Opp %).

#1- Texas 90.50 (56.95)
#2- Oklahoma 78.68 (36.08)
#3- Missouri 74.68 (29.07)
#4- Alabama 73.10 (35.47)
#5- Georgia 68.81 (28.67)
#6- Utah 67.06 (30.27)
#7- Penn St 65.68 (28.57)
#8- Boise State 61.00 (10.5)
#9- Nebraska 58.83 (34.00)
#10- Vanderbilt 56.70 (16.70)
#11- BYU 52.64 (25.75)
#12-Wisconsin 51.48 (28.15)
#13- Ball St. 50.21 (20.13)
#14- Minnesota 46.46 (17.75)
#15- NorthWestern 45.82 (5.17)
#16- Virginia Tech 44.71 (5.75)
#17- Wake Forest 43.15 (11.33)
#18- Oklahoma State 42.41 (15.08)
#19- USC 41.25 (21.00)
#20- Michigan State 39.60 (18.83)
#21- TCU 39.44 (19.40)
#22- Notre Dame 38.23 (14.13)
#23- Kansas 36.69 (22.00)
#24- Uconn 36.38 (3.27)
#25- California 35.17 (15.27)

Most Powerful Conferences
#1- Big 12 32.33
#2- Big 10 31.36
#3- SEC 29.21
#4- MWC 20.421
#5- ACC 16.06
#6- Big East 15.31
#7- PAC 10 11.39
#8- WAC -.32
#9- C USA -1.54
#10- MAC -2.71
#11- IND. -8.46
#12- Sun Belt -9.8