Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Monday, October 13, 2008

NCAA Football Douglass Rating. 10-13-08

Ok, so here is my final formula. I think this is probably as fair as it can get. It's funny that if you do things based on winning pct. and margins of victory, the stength of schedules seem to take care of themselves.
My formula tries to unbiasedly take into account of 1. how much teams are beating people by and what the opponents winning pct is 2. what is the opponents strength, based on their margins of victory and their opponents win % 3. rewards teams based on wins prorated by their opponents win %.

(margin of victory x opponents win pct.) + (opponents margin of victory * their opponents win pct.) + (5 pts for win * opp win pct)

You'll notice, their are some teams ranked highly who have mediocre records like Nebraska #7 3-3. This is because they beat W. Mich 5-1 convincingly, beat SJSU 3-2 convincingly, beat 2-2 NMSU very badly. They lost to 4-1 VT by 5, lost to Missouri 4-1 and lost to Texas Tech by 6 4-0. So they get points for playing such tough opponents, but don't lose a lot of points since opponents records are so solid.

1- USC 17.74
2- Texas 16.43
3- Missouri 14.84
4- Oklahoma 13.08
5- Penn State 12.03
6- Florida 11.23
7- Nebraska 10.18
8- Georgia 9.95
9- Boise St. 9.86
10- Texas Tech 9.48
11- Ohio State 8.63
12- Oklahoma St 8.63
13- UNC 7.96
14- Alabama 7.87
15- Georgia Tech 7.73
16- Kansas 7.70
17- Michigan St 6.34
18- Iowa 5.99
19- BYU 5.41
20- Wisconsin 5.4
21- Duke 5.31
22- Minnesota 5.25
23- Illinois 5.24
24- Virginia Tech 5.10
25- Utah 5.0
26- Arizona St 4.97
27- Mississippi 4.83
28- TCU 4.76
29- Florida State 4.64
30- Arkansas 3.88
31- Oregon St 3.84

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Rankings as of 2:14 EST after all the games.

As we know, the college football ranking system is a joke. The BCS is the biggest scam in the sporting world so I've tried to devise a system based solely on performance, not subjective voting.

The following are based on margin of victory and opponents winning pct.
It is only against D1 opponents.

Rankings Simple Margin of Victory x only Division 1 Opponents winning pct.

1- USC 14.31 (4-1)
2- Texas 13.05 (6-0)
3- Florida 10.50 (5-1)
4- Missouri 9.86 (4-1)
5- Oklahoma 9.61 (4-1)
6- Penn St. 9.40 (6-0)
7- BYU 7.61 (5-0)
8- Oklahoma State 7.29 (5-0)
9- Tulsa 7.10 (5-0)
10- Georgia 7.09 (4-1)
11- Texas Tech 6.85 (4-0)
12- Boise St. 6.85 (4-0)
13- Nebraska 6.74 (3-3)
14- Kansas 6.25 (4-1)
15- Alabama 5.88 (6-0)
16- Georgia Tech 5.34 (3-1)
17- Iowa 5.23 (3-3)
18- Michigan State 5.10 (6-1)
19- Utah 5.06 (6-0)
20- UNC 5.03 (4-1)
21- Ball St. 4.87 (6-0)
22- Wisconson 3.99 (3-3)
23- TCU 3.96 (5-1)
24- California 3.76 (4-1)
25- Minnesota 3.62 (5-1)

Rankings Avg per game [(Margin of Victory * Opp win pct.) + Avg of Opponents( Margin of Victory * their opponents win %)]

1- USC 15.39
2- Texas 13.85
3- Missouri 13.01
4- Oklahoma 11.05
5- Penn St. 10.21
6- Florida 9.24
7- Nebraska 8.45
8- Georgia 7.95
9- Texas Tech 7.36
10- Boise St. 7.26
11- Ohio St. 6.59
12- Oklahoma St. 6.35
13- UNC 5.89
14- Kansas 5.86
15- Georgia Tech 5.73
16- Alabama 5.63
17- Iowa 4.95
18- Arizona St. 4.35
19- Mich St 4.32
20- Illinois 4.30
21- Colorado 4.09
22- BYU 4.07
23- Wisconsin 4.03
24- Duke 3.93
25- Minnesota 3.62
26- Mississippi 3.57
27- TCU 3.22
28- Arkansas 3.21
29- Florida St 3.14
30- Utah 2.86
31- Virginia Tech 2.85

An interesting not for cougar fans. BYU has the best defense in the country. #1 scoring defense against only D1 teams. My spreadsheet throws out all games against non D1 opponents so this doesn't count the N. Iowa game.
They are only allowing 8 points a game!
Go COUGS!!!