Monday, October 13, 2008

NCAA Football Douglass Rating. 10-13-08

Ok, so here is my final formula. I think this is probably as fair as it can get. It's funny that if you do things based on winning pct. and margins of victory, the stength of schedules seem to take care of themselves.
My formula tries to unbiasedly take into account of 1. how much teams are beating people by and what the opponents winning pct is 2. what is the opponents strength, based on their margins of victory and their opponents win % 3. rewards teams based on wins prorated by their opponents win %.

(margin of victory x opponents win pct.) + (opponents margin of victory * their opponents win pct.) + (5 pts for win * opp win pct)

You'll notice, their are some teams ranked highly who have mediocre records like Nebraska #7 3-3. This is because they beat W. Mich 5-1 convincingly, beat SJSU 3-2 convincingly, beat 2-2 NMSU very badly. They lost to 4-1 VT by 5, lost to Missouri 4-1 and lost to Texas Tech by 6 4-0. So they get points for playing such tough opponents, but don't lose a lot of points since opponents records are so solid.

1- USC 17.74
2- Texas 16.43
3- Missouri 14.84
4- Oklahoma 13.08
5- Penn State 12.03
6- Florida 11.23
7- Nebraska 10.18
8- Georgia 9.95
9- Boise St. 9.86
10- Texas Tech 9.48
11- Ohio State 8.63
12- Oklahoma St 8.63
13- UNC 7.96
14- Alabama 7.87
15- Georgia Tech 7.73
16- Kansas 7.70
17- Michigan St 6.34
18- Iowa 5.99
19- BYU 5.41
20- Wisconsin 5.4
21- Duke 5.31
22- Minnesota 5.25
23- Illinois 5.24
24- Virginia Tech 5.10
25- Utah 5.0
26- Arizona St 4.97
27- Mississippi 4.83
28- TCU 4.76
29- Florida State 4.64
30- Arkansas 3.88
31- Oregon St 3.84

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