Sunday, September 28, 2008

MWC Drops to Fourth Best

In a week where BYU had a bye and Utah didn't play a D1 (which doesn't count on my spreadsheet), the Mountain took a little bit of a hit.
We all know that the BCS system is a complete crock and a joke so I wanted to see what would happen if you took a team's (margin of victory * opp win %) so I created a spread sheet. This week, to standardize it and make it more responsive to the strength or weakness of opponents, I added some to the formula.
Now it goes something like this:
(Victory Margin * Opp %) + 40p/win + (Sum of Opp. Victory Margin * Sum of Opp’s Opps win %)/ Number of games played.

The effect of the addition is that teams get more rewarded for wins. It ranks the magnitude of each individual victory. It pays attention to what is happening to the opponents each team has played and calculates that into the equation. For example, UCLA almost beat Fresno State. Had that happened (38-36), BYU would have jumped up to #6 right in front of Utah. Had Washington Beat Stanford by a field goal, BYU would have jumped to #5 right in front of Georgia. As it stands however, BYU is starting to take a hit, because of the two PAC10 team's poor performance. Likewise, Utah was hurt a little because of UNLV's failure against Nevada. Had they won, the Utes might have been 3rd right now (in a fair system). Michigan beating Wisconsin really helped the Utes out though. Keep in mind, in this spreadsheet, one thing happens, and it changes everything else. It is very fluid, but with more information every week, I think it becomes more reflective of reality.
Oh, by the way, go to heck BCS, we don't need you.

Week of September 28, 2008

(Victory Margin * Opp %) + 40p/win + (Sum of Opp. Victory Margin * Sum of Opp’s Opps win %)/ Number of games played.
Number in () is simple (Victory Margin * Opp %).

#1- Texas 90.50 (56.95)
#2- Oklahoma 78.68 (36.08)
#3- Missouri 74.68 (29.07)
#4- Alabama 73.10 (35.47)
#5- Georgia 68.81 (28.67)
#6- Utah 67.06 (30.27)
#7- Penn St 65.68 (28.57)
#8- Boise State 61.00 (10.5)
#9- Nebraska 58.83 (34.00)
#10- Vanderbilt 56.70 (16.70)
#11- BYU 52.64 (25.75)
#12-Wisconsin 51.48 (28.15)
#13- Ball St. 50.21 (20.13)
#14- Minnesota 46.46 (17.75)
#15- NorthWestern 45.82 (5.17)
#16- Virginia Tech 44.71 (5.75)
#17- Wake Forest 43.15 (11.33)
#18- Oklahoma State 42.41 (15.08)
#19- USC 41.25 (21.00)
#20- Michigan State 39.60 (18.83)
#21- TCU 39.44 (19.40)
#22- Notre Dame 38.23 (14.13)
#23- Kansas 36.69 (22.00)
#24- Uconn 36.38 (3.27)
#25- California 35.17 (15.27)

Most Powerful Conferences
#1- Big 12 32.33
#2- Big 10 31.36
#3- SEC 29.21
#4- MWC 20.421
#5- ACC 16.06
#6- Big East 15.31
#7- PAC 10 11.39
#8- WAC -.32
#9- C USA -1.54
#10- MAC -2.71
#11- IND. -8.46
#12- Sun Belt -9.8

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